Key Elements of Our Traffic Forecasting Approach

• We always use a long time-series of historic data and include as many drivers as possible when estimating the model in order to avoid introducing statistical bias into the derived model used for forecasting.
• Each component of trade has a specific relationship to the individual sectors of the economy. All the main sectoral components of the domestic and foreign economies are tested where possible when the forecasting models are estimated with historic data to determine their influences on each type of traffic through each port or region.
• Forecast traffic is projected using as many drivers as can be reasonably be estimated for future years, including all or relevant parts of economic activity in export markets.
• All markets will have cycles ranging from distorting booms to dramatic busts all of which can have a structural impact. Our methodology specifically takes account of the permanent impact these shocks to the economy have on the relationship between components of the economy and different types of freight. 
• All our model results are refined by technical and market research into the key commodities handled by the port(s) and planned infrastructure developments. This feature of our methodology ensures that planned future market / infrastructure developments are reflected in the projections. 
• Where appropriate, adjustments to the underlying model predictions are made to reflect the impact of shocks and special factors. The resulting comprehensive forecasting framework, based on the components of the economy and dynamic changes, has been developed and proven over time.